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Wednesday, January 7th, 2004

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Highlights of the Week: Winners and Losers of 2003 - Who's Hot in 2004?

2003 was a watershed year in the search engine industry. Not only was it the year of mergers and acquisitions, it was also the year that the media, business and financial sectors really took notice. It was a very busy year for the SEO sector as well, perhaps marking the maturity of the optimization industry. With so much action and so many changes, one almost required a scorecard to keep up. By the end of 2003 the search world looked remarkably different than it did at the beginning. Some firms were big winners while others were huge losers. Here's our list to kick off the new year.

WINNERS

#1) Yahoo! Yahoo! was the clear winner of the search engine war last year. Yahoo spent most of the first quarter of 2003 purchasing several of the biggest names in search. The biggest and brightest move made by Yahoo was the acquisition of Overture, shortly after Overture had bought AltaVista and AlltheWeb. Yahoo also bought Inktomi, the largest paid-inclusion database on the web. Yahoo! now controls (if combined) the largest search database, two of the most innovative search tools and the second largest paid-placement and contextual advertising firm. Along with one of the most recognized brand names on the Internet, these new facets of Yahoo!'s business place them in the same position as Google when it comes to presenting search results independent of other search firms. Yahoo! will be dropping listings from LookSmart as of January 15th, and is likely to drop listings from Google shortly thereafter.

#2) Google was the undisputed champion of search engines last year. Driving over 77% of all search traffic in one way or another helped place them there but their real power came from the near cultish popularity of their brand. The name "Google" became firmly synonymous with search in 2003. Google blazed several paths in 2002-2003 from the introduction of Google News in late 2002 to their online catalog search tool, Froogle. In 2003, Google also introduced their strong paid-advertising programs, AdWords and AdSense. These two programs revitalized the search market and are likely Google's greatest strengths going into their widely expected IPO. Google's reputation has been building over their five year existence as the "clean" search tool, winning the trust of search engine users around the world. In November, Google took a huge risk in re-tooling their search ranking algorithm. Named the Florida Update, the re-tooling might prove to be Google's biggest misstep in it's history but, it might have also been the wisest (despite the thoughtless timing). Since November, the search returns offered by Google have been, for the most part, abysmal. They are getting better though as we have seen a general reduction in SPAM in the listings over the past week and have also seen good sites get rewarded with good listings recently.

#3) MSN is ranking number three today mostly due to the hype they managed to build around their new search engine and the release of the new operating system Longhorn. While both are scheduled to make their appearances in 2005, Microsoft managed to make their main competitors jump through hoops
in 2003. The threat of MSN's new search tool forced Google to make upgrades to its algorithm and Yahoo! to develop its own in house search solutions.

#4) Inktomi is not a search engine but it does have the largest search database in the world. Now owned by Yahoo!, many think Inktomi's database will be replacing Google as the major distributor of search listings on the Internet. Inktomi currently powers HotBot, MSN, Excite and Overture (for areas without paid listings).

LOSERS

#1) LookSmart is facing deep troubles this year. Dropped by MSN, Sprinks and Yahoo! as the provider of paid-inclusion listings, LookSmart enters 2004 with significantly reduced revenue sources. Their stock price has plummeted and senior management is jumping ship. LookSmart started 2003 behind an eight-ball of their own creating when in late 2002 they changed their pricing structure overnight without warning, angering webmasters and advertisers. They were never able to fully recover this market or the goodwill of the webmaster/SEO community.

#2) Pity the poor souls working at Netscape. Battered by Microsoft, bought by AOL, and almost totally neglected by TimeWarner (AOL's owners), Netscape continued to roll along through 2003 until the day AOL announced a deal with MSN to provide search results to AOL customers. Netscape seems to have been put out to pasture and lost its R&D arm. Netscape will always find a soft-spot in long-term Internet user's hearts but it very rarely comes to mind and may not be around this time next year.

#3) AltaVista is the oldest surviving search tool and continues to provide extremely solid, relevant results. Its problem is that it is owned by Yahoo! and does not have the brand-name appeal to keep it going as a business entity. Industry rumour has Yahoo! shutting the doors at AltaVista in the coming months. (Please note, this is just rumour)

Those to Watch in 2004
Google (IPO), Yahoo! (in house search tool), MSN (in house search tool), TEOMA (innovation), Vivisimo (lots of great media coverage towards end of 2003).

Article by Jim Hedger
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Major Player Update: Yahoo!'s New Directions :: End of Free Listings? :: Best Florida Update Analysis Yet - From Atul Gupta

YAHOO!'S NEW DIRECTIONS
Yahoo! CEO Terry Semel had a lot to celebrate this new year and he appears to be happy to talk about it. On Monday, at the Smith Barney Citigroup Entertainment, Media and Telecommunications Conference in Phoenix, Semel spoke of the new directions he anticipates Yahoo! taking in 2004. The biggest change for Yahoo! will be a switch in where search results are drawn from. Currently, Yahoo! receives results from Google. Sometime this year Yahoo! will (99% likely) begin drawing results from their in house search database, Inktomi. Semel also noted Yahoo!'s rapid growth over the past two years with the introduction of paid services such as Yahoo! shopping sites and music distribution. Yahoo! now boasts over 5Million paying users, up from zero two years ago. A large portion of these paying users come from the partnership between Yahoo! and SBC Communications to bundle Yahoo content into SBC’s DSL subscriptions. Yahoo! is currently the front runner in the search engine business war and has been brilliantly placed to take advantage of the emerging trends of contextual advertising and the rapid growth of e-commerce.


END OF FREE LISTINGS?
With Yahoo!'s pending switch from Google (free-listings) to Inktomi (paid-inclusion), website owners with high Google rankings will see the number of visits to their sites drop dramatically as Yahoo! drives about 30 - 35% of all search traffic. Inktomi is also the primary supplier of results for MSN, the third largest search tool. We are predicting that the bulk of search traffic will come from the Inktomi database, starting sometime around March or April. This likely spells the demise of free-inclusion as Inktomi's popularity will increase and Google will need to plug a sudden and likely massive revenue hole. While Google has traditionally spurned paid-inclusion, Yahoo!'s adoption of Inktomi results and the pressures stemming from going public through the anticipated IPO might move Google's management towards the paid-inclusion spectrum.

BEST FLORIDA UPDATE YET - from Atul Gupta
Link building is about to become a lot more important, and a lot more difficult if the current reigning theory/analysis of Google's new algorithm is correct. Earlier this week, the CEO of India based SEORANK, Atul Gupta, published a brilliant analysis of Google's new algorithm. We are experimenting with some of his findings but, for the most part, we think Gupta's analysis is very accurate. To make a long analysis short, the article basically states that Google is now using two unique algorithms to measure the relevancy of incoming links to a website. Gupta theorizes that Google is just now introducing an algorithm known as Hilltop which appears to be blended with the Florida algorithm. The new algo measures incoming links in a very different way than the older PageRank algorithm did.
In the Client Spotlight this Week: Admiral Inn - Victoria BC

The Admiral Inn, located in beautiful Victoria BC provides quality hotel accommodations with genuine hospitality. Located on the Inner Harbour, near the ferry and downtown, the Admiral Inn is one of the top rated places to stay while in Victoria. Along with their world-renown hospitality, the management and staff of the Admiral Inn are able to provide information about Victoria and Vancouver Island and arrange any tour or activity guests might desire.

When in Victoria, check out the Admiral Inn at 257 Belleville St. and visit their website at www.admiral.bc.ca

Weekly Quick Tip: Grokker Provides Insight into the Future of Search

We all know just how sadly irrelevant the results can be at Google. The reason for this is that Google has difficulty distinguishing the intended relevance of a search. As a result, search results often include results from web sites that may only include the words searched without actually proving relevant to your needs.

The best example of this that I have seen was provided by the Associated Press at Canada.com:

"Let's say, for example, you're curious about accommodations in France and enter a search for 'Paris Hilton.' "Google recognizes this as a search in the category of "Regional-Europe-Travel and Tourism-Lodging-Hotels" but still produces page after page with links about celebrity socialite Paris Hilton and her exploits. That's because Google's engine ranks pages largely based on how many other sites link to them, sending the most popular pages to the top."

This is a rather annoying feature of Google's and one which I have no doubt is a source of constant headaches amongst the Google Staff. Now enter Grokker, a software search solution that combines the search results from six search engines (Yahoo!, MSN, AltaVista, Wisenut, Teoma and FAST) into a set of highly relevant graphical results. To continue the example from above:

"If you run the search on Grokker, however, the resulting circle shows all the possible categories of information the Internet offers on a search for "Paris Hilton" - including reviews, maps and on-line booking sites for the Hilton hotel in Paris, which are all but buried in the Google rankings. Now you've much more quickly found not what is popular among Internet gawkers, but what is genuinely useful to you."

In January 2004, Groxis will be adding a plug-in for Grokker customers to add Google's 3 billion page database as a search option. The plug-in will allow up to 1000 free Google searches per day. This cooperative agreement between Google and Groxis is largely a market test. When asked, Google's spokesman Nathan Tyler declined to comment on the Grokker technology. Is Google working on a similar technology for its own search engine? Who knows... Nathan Tyler certainly would not say.

The Net Reality: Bill Gates Foundation Donates Millions to University of Manitoba

With a personal fortune that exceeds the treasuries of many nation states, Bill Gates is one of the richest people on the planet. He is also known as one of the most generous philanthropists as he proved again yesterday with a $21.8 million (CDN) donation to further AIDS research at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg. The university will use the money to expand its pioneering work on AIDS prevention in Kenya and India. The Bill and Milinda Gates Foundation has released over $6Billion on international health and education projects in the past five years. The foundation announced an additional $200Million to fight AIDS in the autumn of 2003. Regardless of what anyone says about Microsoft or Bill Gates, the Bill and Milinda Gates Foundation has done more for the cause of International AIDS research than most governments, including the US Government.



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